Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Weiz vs Leoben — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Weiz
Weiz
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Leoben
Leoben
4/25/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 24Strobl Arena Weiz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Weiz43%
×Draw22%
Leoben35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiz
1.90
Leoben
1.71

Weiz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 30 away

creates per match

Weiz
2.11
Leoben
1.77

allows per match

Weiz
1.66
Leoben
1.70

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par
Leoben+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

Leoben →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Weiz or draw
65%
Weiz or Leoben
78%
Draw or Leoben
57%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+
23%
Leoben wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals
85%
Weiz 2+ goals
56%
Weiz 3+ goals
29%
Leoben 1+ goals
82%
Leoben 2+ goals
51%
Leoben 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)
55%
Leoben (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.66 · 107 matches

Leoben away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.11 + Leoben defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Leoben attack 1.77 + Weiz defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Weiz scores more
43%
level
22%
Leoben scores more
35%

Weiz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weiz 7 – 0 Leoben

Weiz beat Leoben 7-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 25, 2025.

The match was played at Strobl Arena Weiz in Weiz.