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Leoben vs Weiz — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Leoben
Leoben
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Weiz
Weiz
9/27/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 9Monte Schlacko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Leoben57%
×Draw20%
Weiz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leoben
2.29
Weiz
1.40

Leoben creates 64% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 105 away

creates per match

Leoben
2.53
Weiz
1.73

allows per match

Leoben
1.07
Weiz
2.06

finishing

Leoben+0.00on par
Weiz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leoben ↓

Weiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Leoben or draw
77%
Leoben or Weiz
80%
Draw or Weiz
43%

Winning margin

Leoben wins by 2+
36%
Weiz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leoben 1+ goals
90%
Leoben 2+ goals
66%
Leoben 3+ goals
40%
Weiz 1+ goals
75%
Weiz 2+ goals
41%
Weiz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Leoben (draw refunded)
71%
Weiz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leoben at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Weiz away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.06 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leoben attack 2.53 + Weiz defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.29

Weiz attack 1.73 + Leoben defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leoben scores more
57%
level
20%
Weiz scores more
23%

Leoben at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leoben will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Leoben 4–2 Weiz

Leoben beat Weiz 4-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Monte Schlacko Arena in Leoben.