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Weiz vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Weiz
Weiz
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
5/31/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 29SIEMENS Energy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Weiz47%
×Draw21%
Bad Gleichenberg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiz
2.08
Bad Gleichenberg
1.71

Weiz creates 22% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 75 away

creates per match

Weiz
2.11
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Weiz
1.66
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Weiz+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiz ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Weiz or draw
68%
Weiz or Bad Gleichenberg
79%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
53%

Winning margin

Weiz wins by 2+
27%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Weiz 1+ goals
87%
Weiz 2+ goals
61%
Weiz 3+ goals
34%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
82%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
51%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Weiz (draw refunded)
59%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiz at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.66 · 107 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiz attack 2.11 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Weiz defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Weiz scores more
47%
level
21%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
32%

Weiz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Weiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Weiz 5–2 Bad Gleichenberg

Weiz beat Bad Gleichenberg 5-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at SIEMENS Energy Stadion in Weiz.