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Bad Gleichenberg vs Weiz — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Weiz
Weiz
10/27/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 14Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg50%
×Draw20%
Weiz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.23
Weiz
1.68

Bad Gleichenberg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 105 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Weiz
1.73

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Weiz
2.06

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Weiz+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Weiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
71%
Bad Gleichenberg or Weiz
80%
Draw or Weiz
50%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
30%
Weiz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
89%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
65%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
38%
Weiz 1+ goals
81%
Weiz 2+ goals
50%
Weiz 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
63%
Weiz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Weiz away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.06 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Weiz defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.23

Weiz attack 1.73 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
50%
level
20%
Weiz scores more
29%

Bad Gleichenberg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Bad Gleichenberg 2–4 Weiz

Weiz beat Bad Gleichenberg 4-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena in Bad Gleichenberg.