Weidenhausen 0–1 Hünfelder SV: Result & Stats

Weidenhausen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hünfelder SV

11/9/2024

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 19Sportplatz Chattenloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Weidenhausen42%

×Draw23%

Hünfelder SV35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WeidenhausenExpected goals in this matchHünfelder SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.57

Weidenhausen

1.75

Hünfelder SV

1.57

Weidenhausen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 74 away

1.75

creates per match

1.50

1.65

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Weidenhausen

1.75

Hünfelder SV

1.50

allows per match

Weidenhausen

1.65

Hünfelder SV

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weidenhausen+0.00on par

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weidenhausen ↓

Hünfelder SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Weidenhausen or draw

65%

Weidenhausen or Hünfelder SV

77%

Draw or Hünfelder SV

58%

Winning margin

Weidenhausen wins by 2+

22%

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Weidenhausen 1+ goals

83%

Weidenhausen 2+ goals

52%

Weidenhausen 3+ goals

25%

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals

79%

Hünfelder SV 2+ goals

46%

Hünfelder SV 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Weidenhausen (draw refunded)

55%

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weidenhausen at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.65 · 71 matches

Hünfelder SV away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weidenhausen attack 1.75 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hünfelder SV attack 1.50 + Weidenhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Weidenhausen scores more

42%

level

23%

Hünfelder SV scores more

35%

Weidenhausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Weidenhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff