Hünfelder SV 6–0 Weidenhausen: Result & Stats

Hünfelder SV

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Weidenhausen

9/3/2025

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 4Stadion Rhönkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Hünfelder SV51%

×Draw21%

Weidenhausen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hünfelder SVExpected goals in this matchWeidenhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.60

Hünfelder SV

2.17

Weidenhausen

1.60

Hünfelder SV creates 36% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 71 away

1.85

creates per match

1.45

1.76

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Hünfelder SV

1.85

Weidenhausen

1.45

allows per match

Hünfelder SV

1.76

Weidenhausen

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Weidenhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hünfelder SV ↓

Weidenhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hünfelder SV or draw

71%

Hünfelder SV or Weidenhausen

79%

Draw or Weidenhausen

49%

Winning margin

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+

30%

Weidenhausen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals

89%

Hünfelder SV 2+ goals

64%

Hünfelder SV 3+ goals

36%

Weidenhausen 1+ goals

80%

Weidenhausen 2+ goals

47%

Weidenhausen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)

64%

Weidenhausen (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hünfelder SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Weidenhausen away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.49 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hünfelder SV attack 1.85 + Weidenhausen defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.17

Weidenhausen attack 1.45 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hünfelder SV scores more

51%

level

21%

Weidenhausen scores more

29%

Hünfelder SV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hünfelder SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff