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Weiden vs Großschwarzenlohe — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Weiden
Weiden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
P. Bytomski 80'
N. Wessner 86'
8/15/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Sparda-Bank-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Weiden55%
×Draw21%
Großschwarzenlohe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiden
2.04
Großschwarzenlohe
1.27

Weiden creates 61% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 16 away

creates per match

Weiden
1.88
Großschwarzenlohe
1.19

allows per match

Weiden
1.36
Großschwarzenlohe
2.19

finishing

Weiden+0.00on par
Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiden ↓

Großschwarzenlohe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Weiden or draw
76%
Weiden or Großschwarzenlohe
79%
Draw or Großschwarzenlohe
45%

Winning margin

Weiden wins by 2+
33%
Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Weiden 1+ goals
87%
Weiden 2+ goals
60%
Weiden 3+ goals
33%
Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
72%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
36%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Weiden (draw refunded)
70%
Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiden at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

Großschwarzenlohe away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiden attack 1.88 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.04

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.19 + Weiden defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Weiden scores more
55%
level
21%
Großschwarzenlohe scores more
24%

Weiden at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
P. Bytomski
83'
A. Kautz
83'
A. Kautz
86'
N. Wessner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weiden vs Großschwarzenlohe

Weiden and Großschwarzenlohe drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 15, 2025.

Goals: P. Bytomski (80'), N. Wessner (86').

The match was played at Sparda-Bank-Stadion in Weiden/Oberpfalz.