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Großschwarzenlohe vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Weiden
Weiden
2/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 22FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe33%
×Draw24%
Weiden43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.38
Weiden
1.63

Weiden creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 50 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
57%
Großschwarzenlohe or Weiden
76%
Draw or Weiden
67%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
15%
Weiden wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
75%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
40%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
16%
Weiden 1+ goals
80%
Weiden 2+ goals
48%
Weiden 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
43%
Weiden (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Weiden attack 1.32 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
33%
level
24%
Weiden scores more
43%

Weiden at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Weiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Großschwarzenlohe 1–0 Weiden

Großschwarzenlohe beat Weiden 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.