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Weiche Flensburg vs Holstein Kiel II — League #84 2026

Weiche Flensburg
Weiche Flensburg
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Holstein Kiel II
Holstein Kiel II
5/17/2025League #84League #84 · Nord - 34Manfred-Werner-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Weiche Flensburg40%
×Draw25%
Holstein Kiel II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weiche Flensburg
1.46
Holstein Kiel II
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Weiche Flensburg
1.50
Holstein Kiel II
1.29

allows per match

Weiche Flensburg
1.40
Holstein Kiel II
1.43

finishing

Weiche Flensburg+0.00on par
Holstein Kiel II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weiche Flensburg ↓

Holstein Kiel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Weiche Flensburg or draw
65%
Weiche Flensburg or Holstein Kiel II
75%
Draw or Holstein Kiel II
60%

Winning margin

Weiche Flensburg wins by 2+
19%
Holstein Kiel II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Weiche Flensburg 1+ goals
77%
Weiche Flensburg 2+ goals
43%
Weiche Flensburg 3+ goals
18%
Holstein Kiel II 1+ goals
74%
Holstein Kiel II 2+ goals
39%
Holstein Kiel II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Weiche Flensburg (draw refunded)
54%
Holstein Kiel II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weiche Flensburg at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Holstein Kiel II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weiche Flensburg attack 1.50 + Holstein Kiel II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Holstein Kiel II attack 1.29 + Weiche Flensburg defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Weiche Flensburg scores more
40%
level
25%
Holstein Kiel II scores more
35%

Weiche Flensburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Weiche Flensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #84: Weiche Flensburg 2–4 Holstein Kiel II

Holstein Kiel II beat Weiche Flensburg 4-2 in League #84 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Manfred-Werner-Stadion in Flensburg.