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Holstein Kiel II vs Weiche Flensburg — League #84 2026

Holstein Kiel II
Holstein Kiel II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Weiche Flensburg
Weiche Flensburg
11/3/2024League #84League #84 · Nord - 17Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Holstein Kiel II42%
×Draw22%
Weiche Flensburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel II
1.94
Weiche Flensburg
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel II
2.25
Weiche Flensburg
1.88

allows per match

Holstein Kiel II
1.75
Weiche Flensburg
1.63

finishing

Holstein Kiel II+0.00on par
Weiche Flensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel II ↓

Weiche Flensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel II or draw
63%
Holstein Kiel II or Weiche Flensburg
78%
Draw or Weiche Flensburg
58%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel II wins by 2+
23%
Weiche Flensburg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel II 1+ goals
86%
Holstein Kiel II 2+ goals
58%
Holstein Kiel II 3+ goals
30%
Weiche Flensburg 1+ goals
84%
Weiche Flensburg 2+ goals
54%
Weiche Flensburg 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel II (draw refunded)
53%
Weiche Flensburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Weiche Flensburg away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel II attack 2.25 + Weiche Flensburg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.94

Weiche Flensburg attack 1.88 + Holstein Kiel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holstein Kiel II scores more
42%
level
22%
Weiche Flensburg scores more
37%

Holstein Kiel II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holstein Kiel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #84: Holstein Kiel II 2–2 Weiche Flensburg

Holstein Kiel II and Weiche Flensburg drew 2-2 in League #84 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.