Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3–4 Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

5/23/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 27Sportplatz Weißkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming53%

×Draw21%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weißkirchen / AllhamingExpected goals in this matchVortuna Bad Leonfelden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.45

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

2.11

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.45

Weißkirchen / Allhaming creates 46% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 44 away

2.20

creates per match

1.77

1.13

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

2.20

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

1.77

allows per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.13

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weißkirchen / Allhaming ↓

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Weißkirchen / Allhaming or draw

74%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

79%

Draw or Vortuna Bad Leonfelden

47%

Winning margin

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+

31%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals

88%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals

62%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals

35%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals

77%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals

42%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)

67%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 89 matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 2.20 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.11

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.77 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more

53%

level

21%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more

26%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff