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Vortuna Bad Leonfelden vs Weißkirchen / Allhaming — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
10/19/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 12Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden41%
×Draw23%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.75
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 88 away

creates per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.80
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.77

allows per match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden
1.50
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.70

finishing

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden+0.00on par
Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden ↓

Weißkirchen / Allhaming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or draw
64%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden or Weißkirchen / Allhaming
77%
Draw or Weißkirchen / Allhaming
59%

Winning margin

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden wins by 2+
21%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1+ goals
83%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 2+ goals
52%
Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 3+ goals
25%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals
81%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals
49%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden (draw refunded)
53%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden attack 1.80 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.75

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 1.77 + Vortuna Bad Leonfelden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden scores more
41%
level
23%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more
36%

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vortuna Bad Leonfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Vortuna Bad Leonfelden 1–0 Weißkirchen / Allhaming

Vortuna Bad Leonfelden beat Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1-0 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Bad Leonfelden in Bad Leonfelden.