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Weißkirchen / Allhaming vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
CANC
15:00
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
5/8/2021Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 25Sportplatz Weißkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming69%
×Draw17%
Donau Linz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.54
Donau Linz
1.08

Weißkirchen / Allhaming creates 135% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 30 away

creates per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
2.20
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming
1.13
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weißkirchen / Allhaming ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Weißkirchen / Allhaming or draw
86%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming or Donau Linz
83%
Draw or Donau Linz
31%

Winning margin

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+
47%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals
92%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals
72%
Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals
46%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
66%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
29%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)
83%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 89 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 2.20 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.54

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more
69%
level
17%
Donau Linz scores more
14%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Weißkirchen / Allhaming host Donau Linz

May 8, 2021: Weißkirchen / Allhaming take on Donau Linz in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Weißkirchen / Allhaming host Donau Linz at Sportplatz Weißkirchen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.