Donau Linz 1–0 Weißkirchen / Allhaming

Donau Linz

FT

1 – 0

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

10/9/2020

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 10LINZ AG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Donau Linz37%

×Draw23%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Donau LinzExpected goals in this matchWeißkirchen / Allhaming

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.75

Donau Linz

1.65

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 88 away

1.59

creates per match

1.77

1.72

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Donau Linz

1.59

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.77

allows per match

Donau Linz

1.72

Weißkirchen / Allhaming

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau Linz+0.00on par

Weißkirchen / Allhaming+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau Linz ↓

Weißkirchen / Allhaming →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Donau Linz or draw

59%

Donau Linz or Weißkirchen / Allhaming

77%

Draw or Weißkirchen / Allhaming

63%

Winning margin

Donau Linz wins by 2+

18%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Donau Linz 1+ goals

81%

Donau Linz 2+ goals

49%

Donau Linz 3+ goals

23%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 1+ goals

83%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 2+ goals

52%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Donau Linz (draw refunded)

47%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau Linz at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Weißkirchen / Allhaming away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.70 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau Linz attack 1.59 + Weißkirchen / Allhaming defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Weißkirchen / Allhaming attack 1.77 + Donau Linz defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Donau Linz scores more

37%

level

23%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming scores more

41%

Weißkirchen / Allhaming at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Weißkirchen / Allhaming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff