Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1–3 Sportfreunde Siegen U19

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

N. Doğanay 72'

H. El Chaabi 90+4' (pen)

D. Osawaru 81'

B. Ngyombo 25'

4/5/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 9Stadion am Halberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wehen Wiesbaden U1964%

×Draw16%

Sportfreunde Siegen U1920%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wehen Wiesbaden U19Expected goals in this matchSportfreunde Siegen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.26

1.85

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

3.26

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.85

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 7 away

2.39

creates per match

2.00

1.71

allows per match

4.14

creates per match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

2.39

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.00

allows per match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

1.71

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

4.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wehen Wiesbaden U19+0.00on par

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 or draw

80%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

84%

Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen U19

36%

Winning margin

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 wins by 2+

45%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1+ goals

96%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2+ goals

83%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3+ goals

61%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

84%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

55%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 4.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 attack 2.39 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 4.14 → ÷2 → 3.26

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.00 + Wehen Wiesbaden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 scores more

64%

level

16%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

20%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wehen Wiesbaden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

B. Ngyombo

46'

S. Zbiri← B. Altay

46'

T. Akoto← Saadaldin Al Khleif

62'

Y. El Ayouchi← B. Angong

67'

A. Boumaftan← G. Burger

71'

M. Zilz← D. Omeragic

72'

N. Doğanay

78'

D. Osawaru← H. Nakai

78'

J. Lotz← Imad

81'

D. Osawaru

82'

L. Rastiello← M. Abdelhadi

90+4'

H. El ChaabiPenalty

Wehen

Sportfreunde

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Alexander

46'▲S. Zbiri←▼B. Altay

46'▲T. Akoto←▼Saadaldin Al Khleif

67'▲A. Boumaftan←▼G. Burger

82'▲L. Rastiello←▼M. Abdelhadi

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 substitutes

ZbiriAkotoBoumaftanRastielloBitteraHasanovicKühne

Manager: M. Aslan

62'▲Y. El Ayouchi←▼B. Angong

71'▲M. Zilz←▼D. Omeragic

78'▲D. Osawaru←▼H. Nakai

78'▲J. Lotz←▼Imad

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

AyouchiZilzOsawaruLotzAdrovicGhiraDignaß