Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1–2 Wehen Wiesbaden U19

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

J. Adozi 18'

T. Neubert 78'

N. Doğanay 42'

2/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen U1945%

×Draw20%

Wehen Wiesbaden U1934%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19Expected goals in this matchWehen Wiesbaden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.90

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.20

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

1.90

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

2.14

creates per match

1.93

1.86

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

2.14

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

1.93

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19

1.86

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen U19+0.00on par

Wehen Wiesbaden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 ↓

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or draw

66%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 or Wehen Wiesbaden U19

80%

Draw or Wehen Wiesbaden U19

55%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 wins by 2+

26%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1+ goals

89%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2+ goals

64%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 3+ goals

37%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 1+ goals

85%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 2+ goals

56%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 attack 2.14 + Wehen Wiesbaden U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.20

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 attack 1.93 + Sportfreunde Siegen U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 scores more

45%

level

20%

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 scores more

34%

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

39'

42'

65'

65'

Y. El Ayouchi← J. Adozi

72'

A. Boumaftan← J. Becker

72'

M. Abdelhadi← B. Altay

78'

T. Neubert

86'

B. El van Cihangir← J. Lotz

89'

G. Burger← T. Akoto

90+3'

S. Patow← J. Ngwa

Sportfreunde

Wehen

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Adozi

Manager: M. Aslan

39'▲L. Meyer←▼B. Ngyombo

65'▲M. Demo←▼D. Omeragic

65'▲Y. El Ayouchi←▼J. Adozi

86'▲B. El van Cihangir←▼J. Lotz

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 substitutes

MeyerDemoAyouchiCihangirAdrovicGhiraEngel

Manager: A. Alexander

72'▲A. Boumaftan←▼J. Becker

72'▲M. Abdelhadi←▼B. Altay

89'▲G. Burger←▼T. Akoto

90+3'▲S. Patow←▼J. Ngwa

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 substitutes

BoumaftanAbdelhadiBurgerPatowKocabeyYoldas-DiazFärber

U19 Bundesliga: Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1–2 Wehen Wiesbaden U19

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 beat Sportfreunde Siegen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Adozi (18'), N. Doğanay (42'), T. Neubert (78').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Leimbachstadion in Siegen.

Sportfreunde Siegen U19 vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Sportfreunde Siegen U19 1–2 Wehen Wiesbaden U19