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Wefaq Ajdabiya vs Khaleej Sart — Premier League 2019

Wefaq Ajdabiya
Wefaq Ajdabiya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
4/22/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group D - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wefaq Ajdabiya47%
×Draw29%
Khaleej Sart24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wefaq Ajdabiya
1.29
Khaleej Sart
0.84

Wefaq Ajdabiya creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Wefaq Ajdabiya
1.00
Khaleej Sart
0.95

allows per match

Wefaq Ajdabiya
0.73
Khaleej Sart
1.58

finishing

Wefaq Ajdabiya+0.00on par
Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wefaq Ajdabiya ↓

Khaleej Sart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wefaq Ajdabiya or draw
76%
Wefaq Ajdabiya or Khaleej Sart
71%
Draw or Khaleej Sart
53%

Winning margin

Wefaq Ajdabiya wins by 2+
22%
Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wefaq Ajdabiya 1+ goals
72%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 2+ goals
37%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 3+ goals
14%
Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
57%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
21%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wefaq Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
66%
Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wefaq Ajdabiya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wefaq Ajdabiya attack 1.00 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Wefaq Ajdabiya defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wefaq Ajdabiya scores more
47%
level
29%
Khaleej Sart scores more
24%

Wefaq Ajdabiya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wefaq Ajdabiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wefaq Ajdabiya 1–0 Khaleej Sart

Wefaq Ajdabiya beat Khaleej Sart 1-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2026.