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Khaleej Sart vs Wefaq Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Khaleej Sart
Khaleej Sart
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Wefaq Ajdabiya
Wefaq Ajdabiya
2/3/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group D - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Khaleej Sart50%
×Draw28%
Wefaq Ajdabiya23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khaleej Sart
1.38
Wefaq Ajdabiya
0.84

Khaleej Sart creates 64% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Khaleej Sart
1.42
Wefaq Ajdabiya
0.47

allows per match

Khaleej Sart
1.21
Wefaq Ajdabiya
1.33

finishing

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par
Wefaq Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khaleej Sart ↓

Wefaq Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Khaleej Sart or draw
77%
Khaleej Sart or Wefaq Ajdabiya
72%
Draw or Wefaq Ajdabiya
50%

Winning margin

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+
24%
Wefaq Ajdabiya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals
75%
Khaleej Sart 2+ goals
40%
Khaleej Sart 3+ goals
16%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 1+ goals
57%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 2+ goals
21%
Wefaq Ajdabiya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)
68%
Wefaq Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khaleej Sart at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

Wefaq Ajdabiya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khaleej Sart attack 1.42 + Wefaq Ajdabiya defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wefaq Ajdabiya attack 0.47 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Khaleej Sart scores more
50%
level
28%
Wefaq Ajdabiya scores more
23%

Khaleej Sart at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khaleej Sart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khaleej Sart 2–2 Wefaq Ajdabiya

Khaleej Sart and Wefaq Ajdabiya drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 3, 2026.