Wazito FC 1–4 Posta Rangers FC: Result & Stats

Wazito FC

FT

1 – 4

Posta Rangers FC

1/5/2022

FKF Premier League · Round 11Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC33%

×Draw29%

Posta Rangers FC38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wazito FCExpected goals in this matchPosta Rangers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.17

Wazito FC

1.07

Posta Rangers FC

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 149 away

1.01

creates per match

1.03

1.31

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Wazito FC

1.01

Posta Rangers FC

1.03

allows per match

Wazito FC

1.31

Posta Rangers FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Posta Rangers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw

62%

Wazito FC or Posta Rangers FC

71%

Draw or Posta Rangers FC

67%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+

13%

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals

66%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

29%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

9%

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals

69%

Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals

33%

Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

46%

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Posta Rangers FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Posta Rangers FC attack 1.03 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wazito FC scores more

33%

level

29%

Posta Rangers FC scores more

38%

Posta Rangers FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff