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Posta Rangers FC vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Posta Rangers FC
Posta Rangers FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
2/9/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Posta Rangers FC42%
×Draw29%
Wazito FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Posta Rangers FC
1.20
Wazito FC
0.94

Posta Rangers FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 77 away

creates per match

Posta Rangers FC
0.95
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Posta Rangers FC
1.14
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Posta Rangers FC+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posta Rangers FC ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Posta Rangers FC or draw
71%
Posta Rangers FC or Wazito FC
71%
Draw or Wazito FC
58%

Winning margin

Posta Rangers FC wins by 2+
18%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Posta Rangers FC 1+ goals
70%
Posta Rangers FC 2+ goals
34%
Posta Rangers FC 3+ goals
12%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
61%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
24%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Posta Rangers FC (draw refunded)
59%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posta Rangers FC at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.14 · 146 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posta Rangers FC attack 0.95 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.20

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Posta Rangers FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Posta Rangers FC scores more
42%
level
29%
Wazito FC scores more
29%

Posta Rangers FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Posta Rangers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Posta Rangers FC vs Wazito FC

Posta Rangers FC and Wazito FC drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on February 9, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.