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Wazito FC vs Kisumu All Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
CANC
00:00
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
4/11/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 28Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Wazito FC60%
×Draw22%
Kisumu All Stars18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.92
Kisumu All Stars
0.93

Wazito FC creates 106% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 11 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Kisumu All Stars
0.55

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Kisumu All Stars
2.82

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
82%
Wazito FC or Kisumu All Stars
78%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
40%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
36%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
85%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
57%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
30%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
61%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
24%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
77%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wazito FC scores more
60%
level
22%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
18%

Wazito FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wazito FC host Kisumu All Stars

April 11, 2020: Wazito FC take on Kisumu All Stars in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wazito FC host Kisumu All Stars at Kenyatta Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.