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Kisumu All Stars vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
2 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
E. O. Otieno 84'
A. Gershom 48' (pen)
11/20/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kisumu All Stars31%
×Draw28%
Wazito FC41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.05
Wazito FC
1.25

Wazito FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 76 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.64
Wazito FC
0.76

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.73
Wazito FC
1.47

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
59%
Kisumu All Stars or Wazito FC
72%
Draw or Wazito FC
69%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
12%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
65%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
28%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
9%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
71%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
36%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
43%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.64 + Wazito FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.05

Wazito FC attack 0.76 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
31%
level
28%
Wazito FC scores more
41%

Wazito FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
A. GershomPenalty
84'
E. O. Otieno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Kisumu All Stars 2–0 Wazito FC

Kisumu All Stars beat Wazito FC 2-0 in FKF Premier League on November 20, 2019.

Goals: A. Gershom (48' pen), E. O. Otieno (84').

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.