Wazito FC 1–3 Kariobangi Sharks: Result & Stats

Wazito FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kariobangi Sharks

3/1/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 16Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC31%

×Draw29%

Kariobangi Sharks40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wazito FCExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.18

Wazito FC

1.02

Kariobangi Sharks

1.18

Kariobangi Sharks creates 16% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 143 away

1.01

creates per match

1.04

1.31

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Wazito FC

1.01

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

Wazito FC

1.31

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw

60%

Wazito FC or Kariobangi Sharks

71%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

69%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+

12%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals

64%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

27%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

8%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

69%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

33%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

44%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wazito FC scores more

31%

level

29%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

40%

Kariobangi Sharks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff