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Kariobangi Sharks vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
FT
2 – 2
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
3/29/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks47%
×Draw27%
Wazito FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.42
Wazito FC
1.00

Kariobangi Sharks creates 42% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 77 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.38
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
73%
Kariobangi Sharks or Wazito FC
73%
Draw or Wazito FC
53%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
23%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
76%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
41%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
17%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
63%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
26%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
64%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
47%
level
27%
Wazito FC scores more
27%

Kariobangi Sharks at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariobangi Sharks vs Wazito FC

Kariobangi Sharks and Wazito FC drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.