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Wazito FC vs Homeboyz — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
0 – 1
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
10/17/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 2Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC32%
×Draw28%
Homeboyz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.08
Homeboyz
1.25

Homeboyz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 146 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Homeboyz
1.19

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Homeboyz
1.15

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
60%
Wazito FC or Homeboyz
72%
Draw or Homeboyz
68%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
12%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
66%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
29%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
10%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
71%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
36%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
44%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.15 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Homeboyz defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Homeboyz attack 1.19 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wazito FC scores more
32%
level
28%
Homeboyz scores more
40%

Homeboyz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Wazito FC 0–1 Homeboyz

Homeboyz beat Wazito FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Utalii Football Field in Nairobi.