Homeboyz 1–0 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Homeboyz

FT

1 – 0

Wazito FC

5/3/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 25Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Homeboyz52%

×Draw27%

Wazito FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HomeboyzExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.79

Homeboyz

1.43

Wazito FC

0.79

Homeboyz creates 81% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 77 away

1.41

creates per match

0.75

0.84

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Homeboyz

1.41

Wazito FC

0.75

allows per match

Homeboyz

0.84

Wazito FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw

79%

Homeboyz or Wazito FC

73%

Draw or Wazito FC

48%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+

26%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals

76%

Homeboyz 2+ goals

42%

Homeboyz 3+ goals

17%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

55%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

19%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)

72%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Homeboyz scores more

52%

level

27%

Wazito FC scores more

21%

Homeboyz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff