Wazito FC 0–0 GOR Mahia: Result & Stats

Wazito FC

FT

0 – 0

GOR Mahia

5/7/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 26Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC24%

×Draw27%

GOR Mahia48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wazito FCExpected goals in this matchGOR Mahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.40

Wazito FC

0.91

GOR Mahia

1.40

GOR Mahia creates 54% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 144 away

1.01

creates per match

1.49

1.31

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Wazito FC

1.01

GOR Mahia

1.49

allows per match

Wazito FC

1.31

GOR Mahia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par

GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

GOR Mahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw

52%

Wazito FC or GOR Mahia

73%

Draw or GOR Mahia

76%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+

8%

GOR Mahia wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals

60%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

23%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

6%

GOR Mahia 1+ goals

75%

GOR Mahia 2+ goals

41%

GOR Mahia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

34%

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wazito FC scores more

24%

level

27%

GOR Mahia scores more

48%

GOR Mahia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff