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GOR Mahia vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
0 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
6/23/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

GOR Mahia56%
×Draw26%
Wazito FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.52
Wazito FC
0.72

GOR Mahia creates 111% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 77 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
82%
GOR Mahia or Wazito FC
74%
Draw or Wazito FC
44%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
30%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
78%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
45%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
20%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
51%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
16%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
76%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
56%
level
26%
Wazito FC scores more
18%

GOR Mahia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOR Mahia vs Wazito FC

GOR Mahia and Wazito FC drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.