Wazito FC 0–0 Chemelil Sugar: Result & Stats

Wazito FC

FT

0 – 0

Chemelil Sugar

8/20/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 27Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wazito FC45%

×Draw28%

Chemelil Sugar27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wazito FCExpected goals in this matchChemelil Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Wazito FC

1.31

Chemelil Sugar

0.94

Wazito FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

1.01

creates per match

0.57

1.31

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wazito FC

1.01

Chemelil Sugar

0.57

allows per match

Wazito FC

1.31

Chemelil Sugar

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Chemelil Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw

73%

Wazito FC or Chemelil Sugar

72%

Draw or Chemelil Sugar

55%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+

21%

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals

73%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

38%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

14%

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

61%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

24%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

63%

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.57 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wazito FC scores more

45%

level

28%

Chemelil Sugar scores more

27%

Wazito FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff