Chemelil Sugar 3–1 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Chemelil Sugar

FT

3 – 1

Wazito FC

4/15/2018

FKF Premier League · Round 11Chemelil Sports Complex (Chemelil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Chemelil Sugar38%

×Draw29%

Wazito FC32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemelil SugarExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.02

Chemelil Sugar

1.14

Wazito FC

1.02

Chemelil Sugar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

0.80

creates per match

0.76

1.28

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar

0.80

Wazito FC

0.76

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar

1.28

Wazito FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw

68%

Chemelil Sugar or Wazito FC

71%

Draw or Wazito FC

62%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

16%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

68%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

32%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

11%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

64%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

27%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

54%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.80 + Wazito FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Wazito FC attack 0.76 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more

38%

level

29%

Wazito FC scores more

32%

Chemelil Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff