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Wazito FC vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
5/29/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC33%
×Draw30%
Bidco United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.02
Bidco United
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 101 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
63%
Wazito FC or Bidco United
70%
Draw or Bidco United
67%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
13%
Bidco United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
64%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
27%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
8%
Bidco United 1+ goals
66%
Bidco United 2+ goals
29%
Bidco United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
48%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wazito FC scores more
33%
level
30%
Bidco United scores more
37%

Bidco United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Wazito FC 0–2 Bidco United

Bidco United beat Wazito FC 2-0 in FKF Premier League on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.