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Bidco United vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
12/30/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Bidco United41%
×Draw30%
Wazito FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.16
Wazito FC
0.91

Bidco United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 77 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
71%
Bidco United or Wazito FC
70%
Draw or Wazito FC
59%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
18%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
69%
Bidco United 2+ goals
32%
Bidco United 3+ goals
11%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
60%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
23%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
59%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bidco United scores more
41%
level
30%
Wazito FC scores more
29%

Bidco United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 1–0 Wazito FC

Bidco United beat Wazito FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on December 30, 2021.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.