Watford 2–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

T. Deeney 49'

M. Niang 13'

4/4/2017

Premier League · Round 31Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Watford40%

×Draw26%

West Brom33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.22

Watford

1.36

West Brom

1.22

Watford creates 11% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

1.21

creates per match

0.83

1.61

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Watford

1.21

West Brom

0.83

allows per match

Watford

1.61

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

60%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

39%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

West Brom 1+ goals

70%

West Brom 2+ goals

34%

West Brom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

54%

West Brom (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

West Brom attack 0.83 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more

40%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

33%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Niang

Watford · M

8.0

Match Events

13'

40'

43'

45'

45+3'

46'

M. Phillips← J. McClean

49'

T. Deeney↳ M. Niang

56'

J. Morrison← G. McAuley

58'

Jake Livermore

61'

S. Rondón← J. Livermore

65'

Miguel Britos

65'

Miguel Britos

69'

M'Baye Niang

69'

A. Mariappa← N. Amrabat

79'

I. Success← M. Niang

83'

Allan Nyom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordWest

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots18

5Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots18

2On Target2

3Off Target10

4Blocked6

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

441Total Passes335

373Accurate Passes258

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0