Watford 0–2 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

J. Key 80'

M. Stamenic 55'

1/31/2026

Championship · Round 30Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Watford43%

×Draw27%

Swansea31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Watford

1.40

Swansea

1.14

Watford creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

1.42

creates per match

1.08

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Watford

1.42

Swansea

1.08

allows per match

Watford

1.19

Swansea

1.39

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Watford-0.12scores less

Swansea-0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

69%

Watford or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Swansea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

41%

Watford 3+ goals

17%

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

58%

Swansea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 20 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.39 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.42 + Swansea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Swansea attack 1.08 + Watford defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more

43%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

31%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Stamenic

Swansea · M

8.5

Match Events

7'

Cameron Burgess

53'

Imrân Louza

55'

M. Stamenic↳ Z. Vipotnik

59'

Gustavo Nunes← J. Eom

59'

L. Cullen← J. Fulton

65'

G. Chakvetadze← O. Maamma

65'

K. Baah← T. Ince

68'

E. Galbraith← J. Ward

69'

M. Yalcouye← G. Franco

76'

N. Irankunda← M. Doumbia

77'

N. Mendy← I. Louza

80'

J. Key← Ronald

80'

J. Key↳ M. Stamenic

90+2'

Nestory Irankunda

90+2'

Liam Cullen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordSwansea

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots14

0.91Expected Goals (xG)2.64

5Corners8

10Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots14

5On Target7

7Off Target2

5Blocked5

7Inside Box9

10Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

454Total Passes348

353Accurate Passes260

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

0.33Goals Prevented0.33

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides5

Championship: Watford 0–2 Swansea

Swansea beat Watford 2-0 in Championship on January 31, 2026.

Goals: M. Stamenic (55'), J. Key (80').

Watford controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 0–2 Swansea