Swansea 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

M. Peart-Harris 35'

11/5/2024

Championship · Round 14Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Swansea42%

×Draw28%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Swansea

1.27

Watford

1.02

Swansea creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.22

creates per match

0.97

1.06

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Swansea

1.22

Watford

0.97

allows per match

Swansea

1.06

Watford

1.32

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Swansea-0.11scores less

Watford+0.03on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

70%

Swansea or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

58%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

72%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

64%

Watford 2+ goals

27%

Watford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

59%

Watford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Watford away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.22 + Watford defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Watford attack 0.97 + Swansea defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swansea scores more

42%

level

28%

Watford scores more

30%

Swansea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Peart-Harris

Swansea · M

8.6

Match Events

26'

Festy Ebosele

35'

M. Peart-Harris↳ Ronald

40'

44'

45'

46'

62'

62'

67'

F. Bianchini← Ž. Vipotnik

74'

M. Doumbia← T. Ince

76'

J. Allen← Gonçalo Franco

76'

C. Christie← K. Naughton

79'

Myles Peart-Harris

83'

D. Jebbison← V. Bayo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaWatford

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots7

2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.35

6Corners8

9Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots7

3On Target0

3Off Target4

6Blocked3

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

482Total Passes333

378Accurate Passes253

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

0.54Goals Prevented0.54

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2