Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Watford vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Watford
Watford
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Swansea
Swansea
I. Success 87'
A. Gray 56'
5/8/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Watford43%
×Draw27%
Swansea31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.39
Swansea
1.13

Watford creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 55 away

creates per match

Watford
1.29
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Watford
1.16
Swansea
1.48

finishing

Watford-0.02on par
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw
69%
Watford or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
75%
Watford 2+ goals
40%
Watford 3+ goals
16%
Swansea 1+ goals
68%
Swansea 2+ goals
31%
Swansea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
58%
Swansea (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Swansea attack 1.10 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more
43%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
31%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
Marc NavarroWatfordWatford · D
7.7

Match Events

56'
A. Gray↳ K. Sema
65'
W. Hughes← P. Zinckernagel
65'
João Pedro← C. Sánchez
65'
O. Cooper← A. Ayew
66'
K. Smith← M. Grimes
66'
W. Routledge← L. Cullen
66'
Y. Dhanda← J. Lowe
72'
T. Deeney← A. Gray
77'
M. Whittaker← C. Hourihane
82'
B. Wilmot← D. Gosling
82'
A. Masina← K. Sema
87'
I. Success↳ Marc Navarro

Possession

48%Watford

Shots

10Watford

Pass accuracy

49%Watford

Statistics

WatfordSwansea
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots15
3Corners8
12Fouls6
Shots
10Total Shots15
3On Target2
6Off Target7
1Blocked6
7Inside Box11
3Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
447Total Passes472
377Accurate Passes405
84%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls6
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Watford vs Swansea

Watford beat Swansea 2-0 in Championship on May 8, 2021.

Goals: A. Gray (56'), I. Success (87').

Swansea controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.