Watford 1–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swansea

E. Capoue 42'

4/15/2017

Premier League · Round 33Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw26%

Swansea33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Watford

1.45

Swansea

1.27

Watford creates 14% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

0.93

1.61

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

67%

Watford or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Swansea wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

77%

Watford 2+ goals

42%

Watford 3+ goals

18%

Swansea 1+ goals

72%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

56%

Swansea (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Swansea attack 0.93 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

33%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

A. Mariappa

Watford · D

7.7

Match Events

42'

E. Capoue

58'

Borja Bastón← L. Narsingh

64'

C. Kabasele← N. Amrabat

67'

T. Carroll← J. Fulton

78'

S. Okaka← M. Niang

81'

J. Ayew← Llorente

89'

V. Behrami← T. Cleverley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordSwansea

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots13

6Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots13

7On Target4

6Off Target5

2Blocked4

5Inside Box9

10Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

446Total Passes381

347Accurate Passes291

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls13

4Offsides2