Watford 3–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

E. Kayembe 73', 47'

R. Andrews 49'

8/17/2024

Championship · Round 2Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Watford43%

×Draw27%

Stoke City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.11

Watford

1.39

Stoke City

1.11

Watford creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

1.31

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Watford

1.31

Stoke City

1.02

allows per match

Watford

1.21

Stoke City

1.47

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.09on par

Stoke City-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

70%

Watford or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

59%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 49 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.31 + Stoke City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more

43%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

30%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

E. Kayembe

Watford · F

8.9

Match Events

31'

Vakoun Issouf Bayo

46'

Y. Larouci← J. Ngakia

47'

E. Kayembe

49'

R. Andrews

55'

Jordan Thompson

63'

Bae Jun-Ho← E. Tezgel

63'

A. Moran← W. Burger

63'

L. Koumas← L. Gooch

67'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

73'

E. Kayembe↳ G. Chakvetadze

74'

R. Mmaee← J. Thompson

83'

J. Dixon← M. Manhoef

84'

K. Baah← G. Chakvetadze

88'

Francisco Sierralta

90'

Josh Laurent

90'

I. Louza← T. Dele-Bashiru

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordStoke

Overview

55%Possession45%

24Total Shots7

2.27Expected Goals (xG)0.85

2Corners4

12Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots7

8On Target3

9Off Target3

7Blocked1

14Inside Box6

10Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

471Total Passes383

387Accurate Passes304

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-1.36Goals Prevented-1.36

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Watford vs Stoke City

Watford beat Stoke City 3-0 in Championship on August 17, 2024.

Goals: E. Kayembe (47', 73'), R. Andrews (49').

Watford controlled possession (55%) and registered 24 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Stoke City