Watford 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stoke City

J. Livermore 15'

R. Mmaee 34'

12/29/2023

Championship · Round 25Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw27%

Stoke City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.12

Watford

1.36

Stoke City

1.12

Watford creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

1.02

1.22

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Stoke City

1.02

allows per match

Watford

1.22

Stoke City

1.44

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.10scores less

Stoke City-0.37scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

69%

Watford or Stoke City

73%

Draw or Stoke City

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Stoke City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

39%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

31%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

58%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 48 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Stoke City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stoke City attack 1.02 + Watford defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

27%

Stoke City scores more

31%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Porteous

Watford · D

8.3

Match Events

14'

Junior Tchamadeu

15'

J. Livermore↳ R. Porteous

34'

42'

45+4'

52'

57'

M. Rajović← Matheus Martins

58'

E. Kayembe← I. Koné

58'

K. Hoever← J. Tchamadeu

67'

L. Baker← W. Burger

72'

Giorgi Chakvetadze

72'

D. Johnson← B. Pearson

72'

Wesley← R. Mmaee

73'

R. Andrews← Y. Asprilla

79'

F. Sierralta← J. Livermore

79'

M. Pollock← G. Chakvetadze

80'

James Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordStoke

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots14

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.82

5Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots14

6On Target4

5Off Target7

2Blocked3

10Inside Box13

3Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

448Total Passes526

362Accurate Passes454

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

Championship: Watford 1–1 Stoke City

Watford and Stoke City drew 1-1 in Championship on December 29, 2023.

Goals: J. Livermore (15'), R. Mmaee (34').

Stoke City controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 1–1 Stoke City