Watford 1–2 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

T. Deeney 86'

Joselu 51'

J. Walters 18'

3/19/2016

Premier League · Round 31Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Watford40%

×Draw26%

Stoke City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.26

Watford

1.41

Stoke City

1.26

Watford creates 12% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

0.91

1.61

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Watford or draw

66%

Watford or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

60%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Stoke City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

76%

Watford 2+ goals

41%

Watford 3+ goals

17%

Stoke City 1+ goals

72%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Watford scores more

40%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

34%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Deeney

Watford · F

7.9

Match Events

18'

J. Walters↳ P. Bardsley

41'

Étienne Capoue

45'

Allan Nyom

51'

Joselu↳ J. Walters

55'

N. Amrabat← José Jurado

55'

A. Guédioura← V. Behrami

76'

Jonathan Walters

76'

I. Anya← N. Aké

83'

Adlène Guédioura

84'

S. Ireland← M. Arnautović

84'

M. Diouf← I. Afellay

86'

T. Deeney↳ I. Anya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordStoke

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots9

9Corners2

0Fouls0

Shots

9Total Shots9

4On Target6

4Off Target2

1Blocked1

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

454Total Passes432

327Accurate Passes315

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4