Watford 2–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portsmouth

R. Vata 90+5'

E. Kayembe 57' (pen)

Z. Swanson 10'

12/26/2024

Championship · Round 23Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Watford48%

×Draw25%

Portsmouth27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.13

Watford

1.61

Portsmouth

1.13

Watford creates 42% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 32 away

1.26

creates per match

1.19

1.07

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Watford

1.26

Portsmouth

1.19

allows per match

Watford

1.07

Portsmouth

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

73%

Watford or Portsmouth

75%

Draw or Portsmouth

52%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

25%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

80%

Watford 2+ goals

48%

Watford 3+ goals

22%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

68%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

31%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

64%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Portsmouth defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.61

Portsmouth attack 1.19 + Watford defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Watford scores more

48%

level

25%

Portsmouth scores more

27%

Watford at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Z. Swanson

Portsmouth · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

30'

46'

49'

57'

57'

E. KayembePenalty

59'

59'

60'

64'

71'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

75'

Zak Swanson

78'

T. Devlin← Z. Swanson

79'

O. Moxon← C. Lang

81'

V. Bayo← D. Jebbison

87'

M. Sissoko← E. Kayembe

90+8'

Kwadwo Baah

90'

Owen Moxon

90+5'

R. Vata

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordPortsmouth

Overview

71%Possession29%

13Total Shots5

1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.22

11Corners5

12Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots5

6On Target1

3Off Target4

4Blocked0

10Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

527Total Passes223

439Accurate Passes131

83%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.25Goals Prevented0.25

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Championship: Watford 2–1 Portsmouth

Watford beat Portsmouth 2-1 in Championship on December 26, 2024.

Goals: Z. Swanson (10'), E. Kayembe (57' pen), R. Vata (90+5').

Watford controlled possession (71%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 2–1 Portsmouth