Portsmouth 2–2 Watford: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

A. Segecic 79'

Yang Min-Hyuk 5'

R. Vata 56'

I. Louza 46'

10/1/2025

Championship · Round 8Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Portsmouth42%

×Draw28%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Portsmouth

1.31

Watford

1.06

Portsmouth creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 52 away

1.04

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.04

Watford

1.04

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.07

Watford

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

70%

Portsmouth or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

58%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

73%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

38%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

65%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

58%

Watford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.04 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Watford attack 1.04 + Portsmouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portsmouth scores more

42%

level

28%

Watford scores more

30%

Portsmouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Pack

Portsmouth · M

7.9

Match Events

2'

Max Alleyne

5'

Yang Min-Hyuk

13'

Yang Min-hyeok

35'

R. Vata← N. Irankunda

43'

Jeremy Petris

46'

J. Ngakia← C. Wiley

46'

N. Mendy← H. Kyprianou

46'

I. Louza↳ R. Vata

56'

R. Vata

63'

A. Segecic← C. Chaplin

63'

H. Blair← Yang Min-Hyuk

70'

F. Mendy← J. Abankwah

72'

T. Devlin← J. Williams

77'

77'

79'

85'

89'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthWatford

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots12

1.12Expected Goals (xG)1.88

3Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target6

8Off Target6

2Blocked0

10Inside Box11

5Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

456Total Passes271

381Accurate Passes201

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.84Goals Prevented-0.84

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0