Watford 2–1 Norwich: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Norwich

D. Welbeck 55'

C. Dawson 10'

E. Buendía 4'

7/7/2020

Premier League · Round 34Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Watford50%

×Draw25%

Norwich25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.06

Watford

1.62

Norwich

1.06

Watford creates 53% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 57 away

1.20

creates per match

0.54

1.58

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Watford

1.20

Norwich

0.54

allows per match

Watford

1.58

Norwich

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Norwich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Watford or draw

75%

Watford or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

50%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

26%

Norwich wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

80%

Watford 2+ goals

48%

Watford 3+ goals

22%

Norwich 1+ goals

65%

Norwich 2+ goals

29%

Norwich 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

67%

Norwich (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Norwich away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Norwich defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.62

Norwich attack 0.54 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Watford scores more

50%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

25%

Watford at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Dawson

Watford · D

8.1

Match Events

4'

E. Buendía↳ O. Hernández

9'

10'

11'

23'

55'

55'

59'

T. Cleverley← W. Hughes

76'

A. Idah← M. Stiepermann

83'

J. Drmic← T. Pukki

83'

J. Martin← O. Hernández

87'

N. Chalobah← E. Capoue

88'

Ben Godfrey

90'

Tom Cleverley

90'

Emiliano Buendía

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordNorwich

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots12

4Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target3

5Off Target6

0Blocked3

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

375Total Passes504

275Accurate Passes417

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4