Watford 2–3 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Middlesbrough

W. Hoedt 52'

V. Bayo 19'

J. Coburn 63'

R. McGree 12', 5'

9/30/2023

Championship · Round 9Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Watford36%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Watford

1.25

Middlesbrough

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 64 away

1.29

creates per match

1.37

1.21

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Watford

1.21

Middlesbrough

1.22

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.05on par

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

64%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

49%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 58 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

36%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

38%

Middlesbrough at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. McGree

Middlesbrough · M

8.7

Match Events

5'

12'

19'

36'

40'

46'

Matheus Martins← M. Rajović

52'

W. Hoedt

55'

Francisco Sierralta

63'

J. Coburn↳ M. Crooks

64'

E. Kayembe← F. Sierralta

65'

G. Chakvetadze← I. Louza

65'

T. Ince← Y. Asprilla

78'

M. Forss← I. Jones

84'

R. Healey← T. Dele-Bashiru

86'

S. Greenwood← M. Crooks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordMiddlesbrough

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots9

1.45Expected Goals (xG)1.03

9Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots9

4On Target3

11Off Target3

2Blocked3

12Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

580Total Passes502

485Accurate Passes415

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Watford vs Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Watford 3-2 in Championship on September 30, 2023.

Goals: R. McGree (5', 12'), V. Bayo (19'), W. Hoedt (52'), J. Coburn (63').

Watford controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Middlesbrough