Middlesbrough 3–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

I. Jones 84'

A. Bangura 78'

E. Latte Lath 28'

W. Hoedt 73'

5/4/2024

Championship · Round 46Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Middlesbrough53%

×Draw26%

Watford21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.88

Middlesbrough

1.56

Watford

0.88

Middlesbrough creates 77% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

1.80

creates per match

1.02

0.74

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.80

Watford

1.02

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.74

Watford

1.31

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.33scores more

Watford-0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

79%

Middlesbrough or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

47%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

28%

Watford wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

46%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

21%

Watford 1+ goals

59%

Watford 2+ goals

22%

Watford 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

71%

Watford (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.74 · 8 matches

Watford away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.80 + Watford defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Watford attack 1.02 + Middlesbrough defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

53%

level

26%

Watford scores more

21%

Middlesbrough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

I. Jones

Middlesbrough · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

Matthew Pollock

28'

E. Latte Lath↳ L. Ayling

33'

Finn Azaz

46'

J. Morris← K. Sema

55'

Matheus Martins← M. Rajović

66'

D. Barlaser← J. Howson

66'

A. Bangura← L. Thomas

72'

S. Greenwood← A. Gilbert

72'

L. O'Brien← L. McCabe

73'

W. Hoedt↳ Y. Asprilla

78'

A. Bangura↳ I. Jones

79'

J. Grieves← M. Pollock

84'

I. Jones↳ L. Ayling

90+2'

J. Wilson← L. Ayling

90+2'

A. Eames← R. Andrews

90+2'

Z. Massiah-Edwards← Y. Asprilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWatford

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots14

2.20Expected Goals (xG)1.05

3Corners3

9Fouls5

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target4

5Off Target8

1Blocked2

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

562Total Passes452

501Accurate Passes392

89%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls5

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2