Middlesbrough 5–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Watford

T. Conway 90', 75' (pen)

M. Whittaker 58', 6'

D. Strelec 45'

J. Abankwah 48'

4/25/2026

Championship · Round 45Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Middlesbrough51%

×Draw26%

Watford23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.91

Middlesbrough

1.50

Watford

0.91

Middlesbrough creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

0.86

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.37

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.86

Watford

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

77%

Middlesbrough or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

49%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

26%

Watford wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

78%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

44%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

19%

Watford 1+ goals

60%

Watford 2+ goals

23%

Watford 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

69%

Watford (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Watford defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Watford attack 0.96 + Middlesbrough defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

51%

level

26%

Watford scores more

23%

Middlesbrough at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Whittaker

Middlesbrough · M

9.9

Match Events

6'

M. Whittaker

45'

D. Strelec↳ M. Whittaker

46'

M. Targett← A. Bangura

48'

J. Abankwah↳ K. Keben

58'

M. Whittaker

62'

M. Doumbia← E. Bove

62'

O. Maamma← J. Ngakia

63'

T. Conway← M. Whittaker

63'

J. Grieves← N. Mendy

63'

N. Irankunda← L. Kjerrumgaard

64'

D. Fry← A. Malanda

64'

L. Castledine← S. Hansen

74'

James Abankwah

75'

T. ConwayPenalty

82'

T. Ince← M. Bola

83'

S. Silvera← J. Sarmiento

85'

Aidan Morris

85'

Imrân Louza

90'

T. Conway↳ D. Strelec

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWatford

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots12

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.85

6Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots12

9On Target3

5Off Target6

6Blocked3

9Inside Box6

11Outside Box6

Passing

56%Possession44%

543Total Passes437

482Accurate Passes370

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-1.30Goals Prevented-1.30

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4