Watford 2–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Middlesbrough

V. Bayo 90+3'

I. Sarr 24'

Rodrigo Muniz 4'

8/30/2022

Championship · Round 7Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Watford36%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Watford

1.25

Middlesbrough

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 64 away

1.27

creates per match

1.37

1.21

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Watford

1.27

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Watford

1.21

Middlesbrough

1.22

-0.04on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.04on par

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

64%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

49%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.27 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

36%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

38%

Middlesbrough at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

João Pedro

Watford · F

8.9

Match Events

4'

Rodrigo Muniz↳ R. Giles

24'

I. Sarr↳ João Pedro

38'

Matt Crooks

46'

A. Dijksteel← J. Howson

56'

D. Fry← D. Lenihan

61'

Francisco Sierralta

73'

V. Bayo← Y. Asprilla

79'

Mario Gaspar← K. Sema

80'

K. Hause← C. Cathcart

82'

87'

90+2'

90+2'

90+5'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordMiddlesbrough

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots14

2Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target3

5Off Target5

5Blocked6

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

371Total Passes356

272Accurate Passes268

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Watford vs Middlesbrough

Watford beat Middlesbrough 2-1 in Championship on August 30, 2022.

Goals: Rodrigo Muniz (4'), I. Sarr (24'), V. Bayo (90+3').

Watford controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Middlesbrough