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Watford vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
C. Cathcart 11'
9/11/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Watford37%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.27
Middlesbrough
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 65 away

creates per match

Watford
1.29
Middlesbrough
1.39

allows per match

Watford
1.16
Middlesbrough
1.24

finishing

Watford-0.02on par
Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw
63%
Watford or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
16%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
72%
Watford 2+ goals
36%
Watford 3+ goals
14%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
72%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
36%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
50%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more
37%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
C. CathcartWatfordWatford · D
8.3

Match Events

11'
C. Cathcart↳ K. Sema
66'
G. Murray← K. Sema
75'
Marc Navarro← Kiko Femenía
78'
L. Wing← G. Saville
85'
Ben Wilmot
90'
D. Phillips← Domingos Quina

Possession

50%Watford

Shots

10Watford

Pass accuracy

50%Watford

Statistics

WatfordMiddlesbrough
Overview
50%Possession50%
10Total Shots11
6Corners6
13Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots11
2On Target4
3Off Target5
5Blocked2
5Inside Box8
5Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
342Total Passes332
220Accurate Passes213
64%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Championship: Watford 1–0 Middlesbrough

Watford beat Middlesbrough 1-0 in Championship on September 11, 2020.

Goals: C. Cathcart (11').

Watford controlled possession (50%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.