Watford 4–0 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Luton

I. Sarr 79'

João Pedro 57'

W. Troost-Ekong 45'

K. Davis 3'

10/23/2022

Championship · Round 17Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Watford46%

×Draw27%

Luton27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.03

Watford

1.43

Luton

1.03

Watford creates 39% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

1.27

creates per match

0.85

1.21

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Watford

1.27

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Watford

1.21

Luton

1.59

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Watford-0.04on par

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

73%

Watford or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

54%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

22%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

76%

Watford 2+ goals

42%

Watford 3+ goals

17%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

28%

Luton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

63%

Luton (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.27 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Luton attack 0.85 + Watford defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Watford scores more

46%

level

27%

Luton scores more

27%

Watford at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

João Pedro

Watford · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

18'

29'

45+1'

45'

46'

51'

57'

58'

H. Cornick← L. Freeman

59'

Allan Campbell

67'

Ken Sema

67'

Harry Cornick

69'

V. Bayo← K. Davis

75'

Mario Gaspar← H. Choudhury

77'

C. Jerome← C. Morris

79'

I. Sarr↳ V. Bayo

83'

Gabriel Osho

84'

Y. Asprilla← João Pedro

85'

S. Kalu← I. Sarr

88'

L. Watson← A. Campbell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordLuton

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots9

6Corners1

9Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

8On Target3

4Off Target5

1Blocked1

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

412Total Passes280

337Accurate Passes193

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Championship: Watford 4–0 Luton

Watford beat Luton 4-0 in Championship on October 23, 2022.

Goals: K. Davis (3'), W. Troost-Ekong (45'), João Pedro (57'), I. Sarr (79').

Watford controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Watford 4–0 Luton