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Luton vs Watford — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
J. Collins 78' (pen)
4/17/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw27%
Watford26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.39
Watford
0.97

Luton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 57 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Watford
1.39

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Watford
73%
Draw or Watford
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Watford wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
75%
Luton 2+ goals
40%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Watford 1+ goals
62%
Watford 2+ goals
25%
Watford 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Watford (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Watford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Watford attack 1.01 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
27%
Watford scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
K. NaismithLutonLuton · D
7.5

Match Events

28'
Sonny Bradley
46'
I. Success← P. Zinckernagel
61'
T. Cleverley← C. Sánchez
72'
Kiko Femenia
75'
Daniel Bachmann
76'
Francisco Sierralta
77'
J. Collins← E. Adebayo
78'
J. CollinsPenalty
80'
Luke Berry
80'
J. Hungbo← K. Sema
82'
A. Gray← A. Lazaar
83'
G. Rea← L. Berry
88'
Kiko Femenia
88'
Kiko Femenia
90+1'
D. Potts← K. Naismith

Possession

51%Luton

Shots

16Luton

Pass accuracy

52%Luton

Statistics

LutonWatford
Overview
51%Possession49%
16Total Shots5
6Corners3
12Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots5
2On Target0
11Off Target3
3Blocked2
11Inside Box2
5Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
345Total Passes327
220Accurate Passes196
64%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Luton 1 – 0 Watford

Luton beat Watford 1-0 in Championship on April 17, 2021.

Goals: J. Collins (78' pen).

Luton controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.